by Lee Presser
Since the mid-1990s, I have written and spoken publicly about the economic and military threat posed by the People's Republic of China to the interests of the United States. From the mid to late 1990s, I usually received either patient, disinterested responses or outright hostility because of my lack of confidence in the ability of people to get along. Very few people recognized the danger. Some saw my point and shook their head in agreement. They were the exceptions. By 1999-2000 Chinese threats against Taiwan unnerved some in America's political establishment. They still act without political or military certainty.
China sees herself as a "great nation" with a long history of accomplishments. Her people are rediscovering national pride after several centuries of national failure and disgrace. At this time in history they are determined to hold onto their national pride and not let any other nation make them lose face.
Some of the world's most modern cities are found in China. Her scientific and industrial development rival other Asian economies with the exception of Japan. Her military capabilities should not be underestimated by Asian neighbors. Ask Russian civilian and military leaders if their neighbor to the south might be a formidable foe. Within a decade China's military potential will rival the west. When their military and economic potential truly worry the rest of the world, that is when China may act as a world power. They may claim a part of the world as being within their "sphere of influence," just as the United States claims North, Central, and South American to be within our "sphere of influence." Placing our manufactured goods in Eastern Asia may require us to trade within a Chinese trading block. I can see a day when the Chinese government has both a Navy and an Air Force capable of successfully defending their interests in the Western Pacific. Militarily, the U.S. will be at a disadvantage. Resupplying our ships and planes will require long supply lines. Chinese factories, shipyards, and air fields will be close.
Unfortunately, the United States is using up its current military resources without replacing those war stocks. During the past decade we have spread our military across Iraq, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo. The Chinese have conserved their resources and reinforced their borders. China is building new, advanced military equipment faster than most other nations. Soon, they will be capable of successfully projecting power beyond their borders. Where they would and why they would project that power are not yet known to those outside their leadership. As Chinese capabilities increase, so will their options.
History has shown that America is never ready to fight when first we are attacked. We are not attacked when the enemy perceives us as ready to fight. They attack when they think we are weak. To protect ourselves, America must invest in power projection and war-fighting capabilities. We must prove to the Chinese and other potential adversaries that they engage the United States and our friends at their peril.
Skip the nukes. Build weapons we can actually use.
Lee A. Presser
